Updated: Tue 11 Aug 9:45 AM WEST
Chrome connected · live
Tue 11 Aug — The floor: shin-high on the cam and 0/100 consistencyToday
The Ribeira cam is reading 0-0.3m shin-to-knee right now and Surfline scores consistency at 0/100 — it is a 0.7m 5s NNW windswell with nothing behind it. Praia Grande is the pick of a bad lot at 15-17kJ, Santa Rita bottoms out at 8kJ. Nortada 22-24kph N all morning. Dawn has already gone and it was no better.
Surf
0.3-0.6m
13-18kJ · 5s NNW
A 0.4m 11s NW trace lifts Praia Grande to 34kJ, its best number of the day, and the tide drains off the 14:30 high toward the 20:50 low — the state this beach wants. But 31kph N is the strongest wind of the day and 34kJ is well under the threshold behind Roman’s 4/10 here in July. Treat it as the swell marker for Wednesday, not a session.
Surf
0.3-0.6m
34kJ · 11s NW
Wind
31kph N
offshore-shadow
Wed 12 Aug — A 10s W line fills in; Santa Rita evening is the only window
Only 38-70kJ coast-wide before midday and Surfline’s consistency score sits at 12-28/100. The 9-10s W line is still filling in and the tide bottoms at 0.5m at 09:00 with nothing to work with.
Surf
0.3-0.6m
43-70kJ · 9s W
Tide
L 09:00 0.5m
H 15:15 3.4m
Santa Rita reads 111kJ against 91kJ at Praia Grande and 84kJ at Ericeira — it converts a W line better than anything in range. The tide falls off the 15:15 high toward the 21:33 low, which is Roman’s low-to-mid calibration and the state behind his 8/10 here in July. Consistency climbs to 65/100 by 6 PM. Wind is 24kph N, its ideal quadrant, but that is still a lot of it.
Cam-confirm Santa Rita — 24kph can go either way on that bank.
Surf
0.6-0.9m
111kJ · 10s W
Thu 13 Aug — Santa Rita spikes to 196kJ on the 09:41 low
Best window of the week. Santa Rita spikes to 196kJ at 9 AM — 106kJ more than Praia Grande and 116kJ more than Ericeira at the same hour — as the tide drains to a 0.4m low at 09:41, dead on Roman’s low-to-mid calibration. Wind is 20kph NNE, offshore on this bank, and consistency reads 69/100. It stays uncrowded even in August.
Praia Grande takes over at 124-135kJ once Santa Rita fills past mid tide, and the Sintra shadow turns the 26-28kph N offshore here. But the 15:56 high at 3.5m fattens the middle of the window. A fallback if the morning gets missed, not an upgrade on it.
Surf
0.6-1.1m
135kJ · 10s W
Wind
26kph N
offshore-shadow
Tide
H 15:56 3.5m
rising through
Ericeira peaks at 149-153kJ, the biggest number of the day, and the tide falls off the 15:56 high into Matadouro’s mid-tide window. But the nortada climbs to 31kph and consistency drops to 64/100. Textured rather than clean.
Surf
0.6-1.1m
153kJ · 10s W
Wind
31kph N
cross-offshore
Fri 14 Aug — One clean dawn before the nortada takes the day
Praia Grande reads 123kJ with the tide falling off the 04:21 high toward a 0.3m low at 10:20 — its best state — and the 30kph N sits in the Sintra shadow, so it reads offshore here while Ericeira takes it cross. Consistency is 69/100 at dawn and collapses to 24/100 by evening, so this is the only clean window Friday offers.
Cam-confirm Praia Grande — 30kph is near the edge of what the shadow holds.
Surf
0.6-1.1m
123kJ · 9s NW
Wind
30kph N
offshore-shadow
Wind builds through 35kph to 43kph N by evening and Surfline’s consistency falls to 24/100. Energy climbs late but there is nothing holdable under that much nortada.
Surf
0.6-1.2m
106-231kJ · 9s NW
Tide
H 16:36 3.5m
L 22:50 0.3m
Sat 15 Aug — Swell doubles, and the wind doubles with it
Swell more than doubles overnight to 1.9m 7s NW — 322kJ at Praia Grande, 402kJ at Ericeira. But 39kph N is the strongest wind of the morning and consistency is only 36/100 at 6 AM. Let it settle and go later.
Surf
0.9-1.4m
322kJ · 7s NW
Wind
39kph N
offshore-shadow
Pick of Saturday. Consistency jumps to 79/100, Praia Grande holds 379-423kJ, and the tide bottoms at 0.4m at 10:57 before filling — low-to-mid, the state behind Roman’s 7/10 here in July. Wind eases to 33kph N and the Sintra massif turns it offshore. Ericeira reads 100kJ more but takes the same wind cross-shore, so the shadow is worth more than the energy today.
Cam-confirm Praia Grande — 33kph is a lot even for the shadow.
Surf
0.9-1.4m
423kJ · 8s NW
Wind
33kph N
offshore-shadow
Tide
L 10:57 0.4m
rising after
Energy holds at 436-464kJ but the 17:14 high at 3.4m fills the middle of the window and the wind stays pinned at 35kph N. Fat and textured.
Surf
0.9-1.4m
449kJ · 8s NW
Tide
H 17:14 3.4m
L 23:26 0.4m
Sun 16 Aug — Biggest energy of the run; Praia Grande holds the wind
Biggest raw energy of the run: 756kJ at São Julião on a 2.1m 9s NW line, 0.9-1.8m, consistency 73/100. Tide falls off the 05:35 high through mid, which suits Matadouro. The catch is 31kph NNW — cross-shore on these reefs, not offshore. São Sebastião is over its 2.0m ceiling this morning.
São Sebastião has no cam — check Matadouro and Foz do Lizandro.
Surf
0.9-1.8m
756kJ · 9s NW
Tide
H 05:35 3.1m
falling through
Best call of Sunday. Praia Grande holds 547kJ easing to 427kJ as the tide drains to a 0.5m low at 11:33 — low-to-mid, exactly what this beach wants — and the 31kph N reads offshore in the Sintra shadow rather than cross. Consistency is 76/100. Ericeira has more energy but the wrong wind angle to use it.
Surf
0.9-1.5m
547kJ · 9s NW
Wind
31kph N
offshore-shadow
Wind bottoms out at 24kph, the lightest of the day, and Ericeira still reads 493-503kJ with consistency at 78/100. Tide fills off the 11:33 low toward the 17:51 high, so Matadouro’s mid-tide window sits early in this slot.
Surf
0.9-1.5m
503kJ · 8s NW
Wind
24kph NNW
cross-offshore
Mon 17 Aug — Biggest swell of the fortnight, worst wind
Swell keeps building — São Julião reads 1.2-2.1m — but the nortada is on it from first light at 33kph and climbs to 46kph by evening. Praia Grande at 369kJ under the Sintra shadow is the only place the wind is survivable, with the tide falling off the 06:11 high toward the 12:10 low. Consistency 77/100.
Surf
0.9-1.8m
369kJ · 8s NW
Wind
33kph NNW
offshore-shadow
Tide
H 06:11 2.9m
L 12:10 0.7m
Energy runs to 973kJ at Ericeira by nightfall but the wind runs with it — 39kph by noon, 46kph by 9 PM. Big, closed out and unrideable everywhere in range.
Surf
0.9-2.1m
649-973kJ · 8s NW
Tide
L 12:10 0.7m
H 18:29 3.0m
Tue 18 Aug — The nortada switches off
Wind collapses to 13kph and swings NE/E — offshore at Ericeira — with 736kJ still running at dawn and 668kJ at 9 AM, consistency 70/100. Tide falls off the 06:49 high through mid at 0.9-1.4m: São Sebastião’s window, and Roman’s favourite.
Surf
0.9-1.8m
736kJ · 9s NW
Tide
H 06:49 2.8m
L 12:49 0.9m
Wed 19 Aug — Glass at dawn, gone by noon
Glass at dawn: 9kph E, fully offshore, over 479kJ at Ericeira and 415kJ at Praia Grande. It collapses fast — 169kJ by noon, 99kJ by 6 PM as the nortada returns at 31kph. Consistency 63/100 early, 36/100 late.
Surf
0.6-1.4m
479kJ · 10s NW
Tide
H 07:30 2.6m
L 13:33 1.1m
Thu 20 Aug — Dead calm over a small swell
Wind drops to 2kph through the middle of the day, but there is only 0.6-1.1m and 90-96kJ underneath it. Praia Grande reads best. Clean, small and soft — a mellow morning rather than a session.
Tide
L 14:31 1.3m
H 20:52 2.2m
Fri 21 Aug — Nortada returns over a fading line
Past the 10-day hourly model, so this is the 16-day table: 0.6-0.9m at 97-107kJ with 21-28kph N back on it and consistency around 66/100. A size marker, not a plan.
Surf
0.6-0.9m
99kJ · 7s + 10s NW
Sat 22 Aug — Windy and inconsistent
Energy fades to 77-95kJ, wind climbs to 30-37kph N and consistency drops to 19-33/100 — the worst combination on the board. Table view only at eleven days out.
Sun 23 Aug — New long-period line, heavy wind
A 1.3m 11s NW line arrives and builds to 262kJ by evening, consistency 63/100 — but 36-42kph N is on it all day. Worth rechecking once it enters the hourly model around Thu 20.
Surf
0.6-1.4m
262kJ · 11s NW
Mon 24 Aug — Best-shaped day on the board, fourteen days out
1.2-1.5m at 390-412kJ on a 1.9m 10s NW line with an 18s forerunner under it, and wind down to 13-14kph. Fourteen days out on the table view, so low confidence — but the best-shaped day showing anywhere.
Surf
1.2-1.5m
412kJ · 10s + 18s NW
Days to Watch
TUE 18 AUG — THE DAY 8/10
Nortada collapses to 13kph NE over 736kJ at Ericeira. São Sebastião on the falling tide.
WED 19 AUG — DAWN GLASS 7/10
9kph E over 479kJ at first light, down to 169kJ by noon. Early or not at all.
THU 13 AUG — SANTA RITA 9 AM 7/10
196kJ on the 09:41 low — Roman’s exact low-to-mid calibration, uncrowded.
MON 24 AUG — EXTENDED FLAG 6/10
1.2-1.5m at 412kJ under 13kph on the 16-day table. Recheck around 20 Aug.
Wave Hunt Potential
Live forecast for the next 10 days, rated for Roman — clean chest-to-head and uncrowded scores high, big and blown scores low.
West Algarve — Arrifana
~3h drive
Real window, but it clashes with home
Builds hard from Sat 15 at 331kJ, 412kJ Sun 16, then peaks at 584kJ on Tue 18 under only 13kph — a genuine four-day run. The problem is that Tue 18 is also home’s best day at 736kJ under the same 13kph, forty minutes from the door. Only worth it as a weekend away rather than a wave call.
Azores — Rabo de Peixe
~2.5h flight
One good day, badly timed
391kJ at 0.6-1.2m under 13kph on Wed 12 is the best number anywhere in range that day, and home reads barely 110kJ. But it collapses to 18-105kJ from Thu 13 through Mon 17 before rebuilding to 210-219kJ on Wed 19 and Thu 20. A single midweek day is not a flight.
Morocco · Canaries · Cape Verde · Senegal
2–4h flight
Skip
Anchor Point reads 194kJ today but drops to 57-67kJ midweek and takes 38-47kph on Mon 17 and Tue 18. Famara has 131-450kJ of energy but 30-34kph trades on it every day bar Wed 19. Ponta Preta never clears 110kJ, and Ngor stays modest four hours away.
Live fetch OK — Chrome connected. Surfline KBYG API queried same-origin for Ribeira d’Ilhas, São Julião, Matadouro and Foz do Lizandro (Ericeira), Praia Grande and Praia de Santa Rita (Sintra–Torres), Carcavelos, Costa da Caparica and Supertubos, plus wave-hunt refs Anchor Point, Arrifana, Rabo de Peixe, Playa de Famara, Ponta Preta and Ngor Rights — 3-hourly surf, swell, wind and energy, plus tides and sunlight to 20 Aug. LOTUS run 10 Aug 7 PM WEST, and 21–24 Aug come from the 16-day table view on the same run. Consistency scores are back this run, recovered from the table view after two runs without them, and are folded into every rating. Carcavelos reads 0-0.3m and Caparica 0.3-0.9m nearly every day and Supertubos never clears 0.6m, so neither the south coast nor a Peniche weekend drive is justified. 39 observations on file, freshest 22 Jul, so standing calibrations only: Praia Grande reads offshore in the Sintra shadow but dies within a day of a pulse ending; Santa Rita needs low-to-mid and has a floor near 50cm; São Sebastião has no cam, use Matadouro and Foz. Numerical only — Portugal has no written Surfline forecaster report. Two browsers were connected and Browser 1 was selected automatically for this unattended run. Confidence: HIGH Tue–Thu, MEDIUM Fri 14 – Wed 19, LOW from Thu 20 Aug.