Wed 1 Jul — Biggest swell, but windyToday
Biggest swell of the whole outlook — 0.9-1.4m waist-to-shoulder on a punchy 9s NW, loads of power. Catch is the N nortada already up at 31-35kph gusting 40-57, over your reef threshold. Dawn is the only clean-ish shot before it firms cross-shore; the tucked-in corners — São Sebastião under the headland, Matadouro — handle the N best. High tide 04:15 draining toward low 10:09 suits the reefs early. Surfable but textured — don’t over-invest, Thursday’s the clean one.
São Seb no cam — cam-confirm Matadouro/Foz for N texture first.
Surf
0.9-1.4m
9s NW · punchy
Wind
31-35kph N
offshore g57
Tide
H 04:15 2.7m
↓ L 10:09 0.8m
N holds 24-28kph through the day, gusting high-40s, texturing everything cross-shore. Sets stay big but bumpy. Bank the arms for Thursday.
Tide
L 10:09 0.8m
↑ H 16:28 3.0m
Thu 2 Jul — The pick: sizey & clean
The pick of the fortnight. Solid size holds — 0.9-1.4m on 10s NW, big power at dawn — and the nortada finally drops to a light ~15kph N offshore at first light, the lightest of the week, staying workable to midday. Sizey, clean and a quiet weekday: São Sebastião comes into its own — your favourite, no crowd, not scary. Matadouro for cleaner walls and more push. Go early; N firms again by evening. Best session all fortnight.
São Seb no cam — peek Matadouro/Foz; if clean, Seb is on.
Surf
0.9-1.4m
10s NW · clean
Wind
15-24kph N
light offshore
Tide
H 04:49 2.8m
↓ L 10:43 0.8m
Fri 3 Jul — Small clean dawn, then flat
Last rideable morning before the flat spell. Swell eases to 0.6-0.9m on 8-9s NW; reefs still clean at first light before a gusty E-offshore firms mid-morning. A fun small dawn logger — quiet weekday, get in early. Nothing worth the drive after this for a while.
Surf
0.6-0.9m
8-9s NW · easing
Wind
light dawn
E-offshore gusty am
Tide
H 05:24 2.8m
↓ L 11:18 0.8m
Sat 4 Jul — Small, glassy, weekend
Small — 0.3-0.6m on a longer 11s WNW — but genuinely glassy (8-13kph light N/NE all morning). Weekend, so São Sebastião to dodge the Saturday reef pack (your obs: Sat stays manageable). Clean dawn logger; the longer period sneaks in the odd better set. Peniche no bigger — not worth the drive.
Wind
8-13kph N
light glassy
Tide
L ~05:50 0.7m
↑ building am
Sun 5 Jul — Small, glassy dawn, crowded
Still small (0.3-0.6m, 9-10s NW) but the glassiest dawn of the stretch — 8-11kph very light N/NE before a midday NW breeze. Sunday reef crowds pile on even when it’s tiny, so first light at São Sebastião to beat them, or rest. A dawn dribble at best.
Tide
building am
dawn window
Mon 6 Jul — Tiny, quiet weekday
Tiny — 0.3-0.6m NW at dawn fading toward flat by evening — but a quiet weekday and light offshore (12kph NE dawn). A dawn logger at the reefs at most before the flat spell fully sets in.
Surf
0.3-0.6m
9s NW · fading
Wind
12kph NE
light offshore
Tide
building am
dawn window
Tue 7 Jul — Flat
Flat (0-0.3m) under light N. Nothing to paddle for — rest the arms.
Wed 8 Jul — Flat
Flat (0-0.3m) under light N. A rest day unless a stray pulse appears. Low confidence this far out.
Thu 9 Jul — Tiny rebuild
Small NW rebuild — flat at first light lifting to 0.3-0.6m knee-thigh on a 10s WNW by dawn, light offshore. A dawn logger at most. Low confidence 9 days out.
Fri 10 Jul — Small pulse (the blip)
Small NW pulse holds 0.3-0.6m on 9-10s WNW at the reefs — the one real bump in a long flat run, light offshore/cross wind. A fun little dawn if it lands. Reduced confidence 10 days out.
Wind
light
offshore/cross am
Sat 11 Jul — Small, weekend
Small NW/windswell around 0.3-0.6m with weekend crowds — beyond the detailed model now, so low confidence. Small dawn at São Sebastião at best.
Sun 12 Jul — Small, crowded
Small (0.3-0.6m est.) with Sunday crowds, beyond the detailed model. Rest day or a dawn dribble. Very low confidence.
Tide
building am
v. low conf.
Mon 13 Jul — Flat/small
Beyond the detailed model — the summer pattern points to small/flat (0-0.3m est.) under light N. Placeholder; watch next runs.
Tue 14 Jul — Flat/small
End of the outlook, well beyond the detailed model — expect small/flat (0-0.3m est.) under the summer Nortada. Placeholder only.
Days to Watch
THU 2 JUL — THE PICK 7/10
0.9-1.4m NW holds with the wind dropping light (~15kph dawn) on a quiet weekday — sizey, clean, uncrowded, São Sebastião on. Best of the fortnight.
WED 1 JUL (TODAY) — BIGGEST, BUT WINDY 5/10
Most size of the outlook (0.9-1.4m 9s NW) but a fresh N nortada 31-35kph texturing the reefs. Dawn at the tucked-in corners is the only clean-ish shot.
FRI 3 JUL — LAST RIDEABLE DAWN 4/10
Small clean 0.6-0.9m reef dawn before the flat spell locks in. Get in early — nothing worth the drive for a while after.
SAT 4 JUL → MID-JUL — FLAT SPELL
Long small/flat run from the weekend — knee-high dawns at best. Faint NW rebuild Thu 9–Fri 10 (~0.3-0.6m) the only blip.
Wave Hunt Potential
If the stars align for a few days away. Ordered by how far you’d travel. The catch in June: the whole North Atlantic is in its off-season — the only things firing are the nearby Algarve on Atlantic pulses, and anything fed by Southern-Hemisphere groundswell.
West Algarve — Sagres / Arrifana~2.5–3 hr drive
Go now · no flight
The summer pattern brings modest, surfable W swell with offshore dawns — the easiest hit on the board, just point the car west. Works year-round; summer is smaller and cleaner.
Morocco — Taghazout / Anchor Point~2 hr flight
Off-season · winter target
Closest by air, but June points are flat — Anchor Point and the right-handers want winter NW groundswell. Bookmark for Oct–Mar.
Azores — São Miguel~2.5 hr flight
Shoulder · watch for pulses
Mid-Atlantic catch-all that picks up swell year-round, but nothing standout right now. Worth a watch for a stray NW or S pulse lining up with a cheap flight.
Canaries — Tenerife / Lanzarote~3.5 hr flight
Off-season · winter target
Trade-wind season now, swell down. The Lanzarote reefs (La Santa, El Quemao) are the play in winter — Nov–Mar.
Cape Verde — Sal / Ponta Preta~4 hr flight
Warm cruise · rideable
Summer brings waist-to-head NW windswell plus the odd SW, offshore trades and ~25°C water — surfable most days, if small. Proper season is Nov–Mar when the NW groundswell wraps the point.
Senegal — Dakar / Ngor~4 hr flight
Off-season · winter target
Rainy season, SE winds, small. Ngor’s reefs fire on winter N/NW swell — a Nov–Mar trip, not a June one.
Puerto Rico — Rincón~8 hr+ flight
Off-season · winter target
Caribbean summer is flat (~78% too small). A winter destination — the NW swells that light up Rincón run Dec–Mar.
Central America — El Salvador / Nicaragua~15 hr flight
Firing now · prime season
The June standout. Southern-Hemisphere SSW groundswell powers the right-hand points all month — Punta Roca regularly runs head-high+ on 14-16s, and Nicaragua/Popoyo shares the window with offshore winds nearly every day. World-class points, warm water. If you ever fly far for waves, this is the one that lines up in June.